The Israel-Iran ceasefire may have quieted missiles for now, but it has stirred up a storm of recalculations in Ankara, ranging from its regional diplomacy playbook to its air defense priorities. Caught between its historical rivalry with Iran and its uneasy alliance with the West, Turkey looks to emerge from the latest regional conflict with both opportunities and anxieties.
While President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sought to position Ankara as a mediator during the crisis, the swift collapse of Iran’s defenses jolted Turkish security circles. Defense planners are now pushing for accelerated military modernization, including upgrades to Turkey’s missile systems and stealth fighter program. At the same time, Iran’s weakening grip in the region may open space for Ankara to reshape dynamics in the South Caucasus and beyond. With Erdogan striking a rare balance between diplomacy and deterrence, Turkey is trying to navigate the aftermath of the conflict with characteristic ambition and familiar uncertainty.
Ankara’s muted response
Israel launched a wave of surprise airstrikes on June 13 against Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure, marking a sharp escalation in long-simmering tensions. Iran responded with volleys of ballistic missiles targeting Israel. The conflict widened on Sunday when the United States entered the fray, striking Iranian nuclear facilities at Isfahan, Fordow, and Natanz. In retaliation, Iran launched missiles at the United States' Al Udeid airbase, in Qatar. Just as fears of a broader regional war intensified, President Donald Trump announced late Monday that his administration had brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, bringing a fragile halt to 12 days of hostilities.
In the early days of the Iran-Israel war, Ankara quietly positioned itself as a diplomatic go-between for Washington and Tehran. Erdogan held two separate phone calls with Trump earlier this month, on June 14 and 15, after which he spoke with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, on June 16, and other regional leaders as part of Ankara’s efforts to de-escalate the crisis.
Ankara’s muted tone in response to US strikes on Iran underscored its intent to keep lines open with both sides. A statement from the Turkish Foreign Ministry on Sunday stopped short of criticizing Washington directly. Instead, the statement said that “the risk of conflict, sparked by Israeli aggression, spreading throughout the region” had been elevated to “its highest level” following the US attack.
Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, thinks the “muted” tone of the ministry statement indicates that Erdogan is still hoping to use his rapport with Trump to mediate between the United States and Iran even after the ceasefire.
“I have not read such a muted statement by Turkey on US policy in the Middle East in more than a decade,” Cagaptay told Al-Monitor. “This mild wording is driven by the chemistry between the principals — Erdogan and Trump — but also Ankara’s ‘crocodile tears’ or ‘schadenfreude’ over its historic regional competitor's nuclear wings being clipped.”
Cagaptay noted that Ankara’s main concern is the potential instability in yet another Middle Eastern neighbor, which could trigger a new refugee flow as happened in Syria and Iraq, “where power vacuums enabled radical jihadist and now-rump PKK to attack Turkey.” The PKK, or militant Kurdistan Workers Party, has been fighting the Turkish government since the 1980s and has been designated a terrorist organization by Turkey, the United States and the European Union.
Lessons for Turkey's defense and security sectors
Another immediate impact of the conflict between Israel and Iran was to raise concerns in Turkey over the readiness and resilience of its regional defense systems in the face of high-tech, rapid-strike warfare.
The speed and efficiency with which Israel attacked Iran took many Turkish defense analysts by surprise. While many anticipated Israel’s military advantage over the Islamic Republic, few expected its defense systems to collapse so quickly.
In the wake of the Israeli strikes, Turkish defense observers seem to agree on the need to allocate more resources for such priority projects as the indigenous fifth-generation stealth fighter MMU Kaan, the Steel Dome air and missile defense system and an even larger arsenal of offensive missiles. Turkey’s defense and security budget is currently about $45 billion, according to government statistics.
Turkey’s Steel Dome is an advanced air defense system designed to protect against a wide range of aerial threats, including missiles, drones and aircraft, at various distances and altitudes. Erdogan unveiled the project in August 2024. It aims to combine several domestic air defense technologies into one coordinated system that uses artificial intelligence to quickly detect and respond to threats. A key part of the system, called Siper Block-1, became operational in October 2024, marking an important step forward in Turkey’s effort to achieve independence in air defense capabilities.
Turkish defense analyst Kozan Selcuk Erkan, also a writer for the website Defence Turk, cautioned that although Steel Dome is being built with impressive speed, it is far from operational.
Speaking to Al-Monitor, Erkan said that Turkey also should purchase airborne early warning and control (AWACS) aircraft and build at least eight batteries of the Siper long-range, high-altitude air defense system and procure “hundreds of air-defense missiles” as part of Steel Dome.
These concerns and calls for bolstered air defenses have found resonance at the highest level. Reflecting the urgency felt within Turkey’s defense establishment, Erdogan pledged to expand the country’s missile arsenal.
“In light of recent developments, we are making production plans to raise the deterrence levels of our stockpile of medium- and long-range missiles,” he wrote on X on June 16. “We will take our level of deterrence to such a height that nobody will even think about attacking or defying us.”
A regional opportunity
Still, Arif Keskin, an Iran expert and former think tank researcher based in Ankara, sees a potential upside for Turkey in the regional fallout from Iran’s mounting troubles.
One area to watch is the South Caucasus, where Armenia, a close ally of Iran, is pursuing a peace deal with Azerbaijan, an ally of Turkey. In 2023 Azeri forces launched an offensive that into the Armenian-majority Nagorno-Karabakh enclave in Azerbaijan, resulting in a mass exodus of the population and Azeri control of the territory. In March, the two countries announced their readiness to negotiate a peace deal to end their long-running conflict.
“The current situation could help Turkey and Azerbaijan in their normalization efforts with Armenia,” Keskin said. “A new trilateral relationship between Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan is possible if Iran weakens further.”
A shift in Iran’s standing, he added, could leave Armenia more isolated and increase pressure on Yerevan to accept Baku’s terms for peace. These include recognition of the current borders between the two states and changing the Armenian constitution to remove claims to Azeri territory.
Almost on cue, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan visited Turkey on Friday and met with Erdogan following a visit to Ankara by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev on Thursday.